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"We propose and demonstrate a simple method for guiding researchers in developing quantitative models of economic fluctuations. We show that a large class of models are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time-varying wedges that resemble time-varying productivity, labor taxes, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002417796
Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Italy shows that it is important to … minor role in the asset markets of the U.S. and Germany; (ii) they substantially increase the variability of housing and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826474
including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889148
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003939773
household-level wage innovations. We draw our inference from household panel data sets for the US, the UK, and Germany. First …, but with increments being smaller in the European data. Third, we find that wage risk is procyclical in Germany while it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003896465
including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003898817
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688529
This paper employs an Extreme Value Theory framework to investigate the existence of contagion between European and US banks. The fact that many regulators have no detailed data sets about interbank cross-exposures raises the necessity of finding market-based indicators in order to analyze the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008758400