In this article assumptions and forecasts of contradictory manifestos of economists Eurosceptics versus Euro-optimists are confronted with reality. Some of the major findings are: (1) The convergence criteria were not applied exactly and strictly as politicians have postulated in advance but...

This case study documents the failure of sell-side analyst independence with respect to their coverage of Enron. More independent intermediaries including short sellers and the financial press ultimately raised important questions about the quality of Enron's management, the integrity of its...

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model fits the dynamic facts quite well if...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...