We introduce the class of linear-rational term structure models in which the state price density is modeled such that bond prices become linear-rational functions of the factors. This class is highly tractable with several distinct advantages: i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, ii) easily...

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of implied volatility for several national stock market indexes. The tests indicate that the slope of at-the-money implied volatility over different maturities has predictive ability for future short-dated implied volatility,...

A particle- lter based estimation method is developed for the stochastic volatility model with/without jumps and applied on the S&P 500 index value and the VIX term structure jointly. The model encompasses all mean-reverting stochastic volatility option pricing models with a constant elasticity...

We construct multi-currency models with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates with a full matrix of correlations. We first deal with a foreign exchange (FX) model of Heston-type, in which the domestic and foreign interest rates are generated by the short-rate process of...

The shape of the VIX term structure conveys information about the price of variance risk rather than expected changes in the VIX, a rejection of the expectations hypothesis. A single principal component, Slope, summarizes nearly all this information, predicting the excess returns of S&P 500...

We derive the theoretical relation between the term structure of implied variance and the expected excess returns of the underlying asset. Adopting three alternative approaches to compile the variables representing the information on the implied volatility index level and term structure, we show...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the financialization of commodity markets on the profitability of strategies based on momentum and term structure. The performance of an array of portfolios from double-sorts on non-commercial traders' participation, historical returns and...

The slope of the implied volatility term structure is positively related to future option returns. We rank firms based on the slope of the volatility term structure and analyze the returns for straddle portfolios. Straddle portfolios with high slopes of the volatility term structure outperform...

We show that at-the-money implied volatility of options on futures of 5-year Treasury notes (Treasury ‘yield implied volatility') predicts both the growth rate and volatility of gross domestic product, as well as of other macroeconomic variables, like industrial production, consumption, and...