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Using belief elicitation, the paper investigates the formation and the evolution of beliefs in a signalling game in which a common prior on Sender's type is not induced. Beliefs are elicited about the type of the Sender and about the strategies of the players. The experimental subjects often...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535526
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929804
dynamics considerably differ between gain and loss domains. For gains, learning to be comparably ambiguity averse increases the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010364762
unknown value. A winner s curse phenomenon arises when subjects bid too high and make losses. Learning direction theory can … quantitative predictions on the basis of learning direction theory. We also look at monotonic ladder processes. It is shown that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539130
The paper investigates social-learning when the information structure is not commonly known. Individuals repeatedly … interact in social-learning settings with distinct information structures. In each round of interaction, they use their … behavior in the long-run if and only if individuals distinguish social-learning settings and receive rich feedback after each …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434567
We study how subjects in an experiment use different forms of public information about their opponents' past behavior. In the absence of public information, subjects appear to use rather detailed statistics summarizing their private experiences. If they have additional public information, they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437784
Adaptive learning introduces persistence in the evolution of agents' beliefs over time. For applied purposes this is a … convenient feature to help explain why economies present sluggish adjustments towards equilibrium. The pace of learning is … document renewed empirical calibrations of plausible gain values for adaptive learning applications to macroeconomic data. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316387
This exercise offers an innovative learning mechanism to model economic agent's decision-making process using a deep … reinforcement learning algorithm. In particular, this AI agent is born in an economic environment with no information on the … adjusting its actions accordingly (i.e., online learning). I illustrate that the economic agent under deep reinforcement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603191
We analyze fiscal consolidations using a New Keynesian model where agents have heterogeneous expectations and are uncertain about the composition of consolidations. We look at spending-based and tax-based consolidations and analyze their effects separately. We find that the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011770688