Liberal think tanks claim that low growth in US wages is reducing incentives for labor-saving innovation and hence creating low labor productivity. Since conservatives reject this, a recent New York Times article stated that economists have a "chicken or egg problem" here. This paper uses modern...

This paper evaluates claims about large macroeconomic implications of new advances in AI. It starts from a task-based model of AI's effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI's microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the...