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different from zero. Although there is little evidence of a systematic response following a typical flow demand shock, the … medium-run responses to a speculative demand shock differ between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, i.e., on average over the …
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This note expands Kilian's (2008) original time series of exogenous oil supply shocks along two dimensions. First, we extend the sample period and include production shortfalls in OPEC member states during 2004:10-2018:12. Second, we also consider production shortfalls in non-OPEC countries. Our...
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