We quantify spillovers of inflation expectations between the United States (US) and Euro Area (EA) based on break …-even inflation (BEI) rates. In contrast to previous studies, we model US and EA BEI rates jointly in a structural vector … autoregressive (SVAR) model. The SVAR approach allows to identify US and EA specific inflation expectations shocks. By modeling the …

A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical … assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of … inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the …

imperfect credibility and weak anchoring of long-term expectations. Within a medium-scale DSGE model, we introduce through a … determination of the central bank to leave unchanged its longterm inflation objective in the face of inflationary shocks. The … magnitude of private sector learning has been calibrated to match the volatility of US inflation expectations at long horizons …