US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections for the federal funds rate are inherently subject to revision with the availability of new data. But when issued jointly with projections for macroeconomic aggregates, they also contain conditional information about the intended future policy...

Conventional wisdom says that commitment eliminates the inflationary bias of monetary policy. However, this paper shows that the inflation bias can persist even when the central bank commits. A simple model is presented in which the central bank precommits by setting the policy instrument, and...

Conventional wisdom says that commitment eliminates the inflationary bias of monetary policy. However, this paper shows that the inflation bias can persist even when the central bank commits. A simple model is presented in which the central bank precommits by setting the policy instrument, and...