A rigorous reconstruction of scenario-based real choice making reveals the incompleteness of decision-modeling and the practical prevalence of uncertainty. Theoretically complete models conceal it. As a remedy a scenario-based procedure of coping with uncertainty can prescribe how the boundedly...

This paper analyses the behavior of an individual who wants to maximize his utility function, but he is not able to evaluate it. There are many ways to choose a single alternative from a given set. We show that a unique utility maximizing procedure exists. Choices induced by this optimal...

Interacting agents in finance represent a behavioral, agent-based approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex adaptive systems consisting of many boundedly rational agents interacting through simple heterogeneous investment strategies, constantly adapting their behavior in response...

This note provides two numerical representations of a nested system of strict partial orders. The first representation is based on utility and threshold functions. We generalize the threshold representation of menu-dependent preferences by allowing the threshold to depend not only on the menu...

Guided by evidence from eye-tracking studies of choice, pairwise comparison is assumed to be the building block of the decision-making procedure. A decision-maker with a rational preference may nevertheless consider the constituent pairwise comparisons gradually, easier comparisons preceding...

Many intertemporal trade-offs are unbalanced: while the advantages of options are concentrated in a few periods, the disadvantages are dispersed over numerous periods. We provide novel experimental evidence for "concentration bias", the tendency to overweight advantages that are concentrated in...

This paper experimentally studies the role of associative memory for belief formation. Realworld information signals are often embedded in memorable contexts. Thus, today’s news, and the contexts they are embedded in, may cue the selective retrieval of similar past news and hence contribute to...

For non-economists, it is often difficult to understand why economists place so much emphasis on the self-interest motive. It is obvious that people act out of a variety of motives - gratitude, anger, social obligation and many, many other motives. There are several reasons why economists still...

Ambiguous prospects are ubiquitous in social and economic life, but the psychological foundations of behavior under ambiguity are still not well understood. One of the most robust empirical regularities is the strong correlation between attitudes towards ambiguity and compound risk which...

This essay outlines the evolutionary research agenda thoroughly explored in its microeconomic aspects in the forthcoming Manual, The Foundations of Complex Evolving Economies. Part One: Innovation, Organization and Industrial Dynamics, Oxford University Press, 2023. But is there an...