We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and Brated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables - indicators of real activity, inflation and...

After the announcement of the European Central Bank's corporate quantitative easing program, non-financial corporations timed the bond market by shifting their issuance toward bonds eligible for the program. However, issuers of eligible bonds did not increase total issuance compared to other...

We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...

We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...

The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...

The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...

Why are spreads on corporate bonds so wide relative to expected losses from default? The spread on Baa-rated bonds, for example, has been about four times the expected loss. We suggest that the most commonly cited explanations - taxes, liquidity and systematic diffusive risk - are inadequate. We...

We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves. By using a data set of liquid, German mark denominated bonds, we show that this yields more realistic spreads than traditionally obtained spread curves that...

This collection of papers analyzes the versatility and predictive power of survey expectations data in asset pricing and macroeconomic forecasting. The first paper, Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment...

Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust - and the subsequent...