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In recent monetary history, central banks around the world have started to introduce unconventional monetary policy measures, such as extending or restructuring the asset side of their balance sheet. The origin of these monetary policy tools goes back to an intervention by the U.S. Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011961353
The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) technique recovers a finite second order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochastic quantity $\xi$, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018868
Previous studies show that the standard univariate unit root tests cannot reject the hypothesis that interest rates follow integrated processes. In this paper, we pool interest rate data of twelve OECD countries and implement a multivariate test. It is found that the unit root hypothesis can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014073180
Log periodogram (LP) regression is shown to be consistent and to have a mixed normal limit distribution when the memory parameter d = 1. Gaussian errors are not required. Tests of d = 1 based on LP regression are consistent against d < 1 alternatives but inconsistent against d > 1 alternatives. A test based on a modified LP regression that...</1>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014164232
Discrete Fourier transforms (dft's) of fractional processes are studied and an exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data. The new representation gives the frequency domain form of the model for a fractional process, and is particularly useful in analyzing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014164678
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559
We develop methods of non-parametric estimation for the Expected Shortfall of possibly heavy tailed asset returns that leads to asymptotically standard inference. We use a tail-trimming indicator to dampen extremes negligibly, ensuring standard Gaussian inference, and a higher rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090751
In the present paper we confine ourselves to proposing tests for smooth transition nonlinearity in the presence ou outliers. We consider outlier robust estimation techniques to modify the tests developed by Luukkonen et al
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014072270
Changing seasonal patterns in economic time series can be described by auregressive models with seasonal unit roots or with deterministic sesaonal mean shifts.By means of simulation we demonstrate the impact of imposing the incorrect model on forecasting. We find for both cases that an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014072337
Linear GARCH(1,1) and threshold GARCH(1,1) processes are established as regularly varying, meaning their heavy tails are Pareto like, under conditions that allow the innovations from the, respective, processes to be skewed. Skewness is considered a stylized fact for many financial returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803123