In this paper we explore the theoretical and empirical problems of estimating average(excess) return and risk of US equities over various holding periods and sampleperiods. Our findings are relevant for performance evaluation, for estimating thehistorical equity risk premium, and for investment...

In this paper we explore the relevance of dividends in the total equity return over longer time horizons. In addition, we investigate the effects of different reinvestment assumptions of dividends. We use a unique set of revised and corrected US equity data series, comprising monthly prices and...

The study analyzed the relationship between relevant macroeconomic variables and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Nigeria based on the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated to obtain the equilibrium REER...

China monetary policy, as well as its transmission, is yet to be understood by researchers and policymakers. In the spirit of Taylor (1993, 2000), we develop a tractable framework that approximates practical monetary policy of China. The framework, grounded in relevant institutional elements,...

This paper assesses that participation of countries in IMF programs significantly diminishes their vulnerability to external shocks. Currently, one of the primary purposes of the IMF is to ensure global stability. As such, the Fund has the responsibility of advising member countries on the...

This paper analyzes the finite-sample performance of the two-pass (TP) estimators of factor risk prices when betas have high cross-sectional correlations (Multicollinear) and when betas have small cross-sectional variations (Invariant). Our Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated using actual...

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite sample properties of the two-pass cross-sectional regressions estimators, when the factors and the asset returns are conditionally heteroskedastic and/or autocorrelated. Using a minimum distance approach, we derive heteroskedasticity- and/or...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

We explore the hypothesis that the substitutability/complementarity relationship between banking and shadow banking services is a major factor affecting the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. We take the parametric approach to demand analysis, which allows estimation and testing in a...

This presentation reconsiders Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit of 1921 in light of the emergence of the World Wide Web in early-1990s, Emanuel Derman's pioneering work in Model Risk Management at Goldman Sachs in mid-1990s, backlash against quantitative models in aftermath of the Global...