In this paper we explore the theoretical and empirical problems of estimating average(excess) return and risk of US equities over various holding periods and sampleperiods. Our findings are relevant for performance evaluation, for estimating thehistorical equity risk premium, and for investment...

In this paper we explore the relevance of dividends in the total equity return over longer time horizons. In addition, we investigate the effects of different reinvestment assumptions of dividends. We use a unique set of revised and corrected US equity data series, comprising monthly prices and...

The diagonal GARCH(1,1) model is shown to support identification of the triangular system and is argued as a second moment analog to traditional exclusion restrictions. Estimators for this result include QML and GMM. The GMM estimator contains many (potential weak) moment conditions that can be...

This paper describes a modelling methodology for multivariate stochastic processes. The concept of multiple causality is discussed and a procedure to detect multiple causality is suggested. The data of a major Canadian supermarket is analyzed and a multivariate autoregressive model for this...

This paper uses a highly disaggregated demand system to estimate the degree of substitutability among monetary assets and to address the issue of optimal monetary aggregation in the United States. We address the problems of dimensionality and nonlinearity, estimating a very detailed monetary...

This study examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach to the determination of exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria by using two variants of the PPP: the absolute PPP (aPPP) and the relative PPP (rPPP). Data on the Nigerian Naira to US Dollar ( /$), British Pound ( /£) and Chinese Yuan...

A new estimator is proposed for linear triangular systems, where identification results from the model errors following a bivariate and diagonal GARCH(1,1) process with potentially time-varying error covariances. This estimator applies when traditional instruments are unavailable. I demonstrate...

This presentation reconsiders Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit of 1921 in light of the emergence of the World Wide Web in early-1990s, Emanuel Derman's pioneering work in Model Risk Management at Goldman Sachs in mid-1990s, backlash against quantitative models in aftermath of the Global...

We explore the hypothesis that the substitutability/complementarity relationship between banking and shadow banking services is a major factor affecting the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. We take the parametric approach to demand analysis, which allows estimation and testing in a...

We develop a new empirical framework to identify and estimate the effects of monetary stimulus on the real economy. The framework is applied to the Chinese economy when monetary policy in normal times was switched to an extraordinarily expansionary regime to combat the impact of the 2008...