We analyse volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets. First, we examine the unconditional patterns during the full sample (April 1999-January 2014) using a measure recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2012). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate net directional...

In this paper quantitatively explores the role of immigration in the evolution of housing prices in Spain and its autonomous regions for the period 1995-2007. We use estimations of an inverted model for housing demand with and without immigrant flows. The results we have obtained suggest that...

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The...

We examine the relation between monthly stock returns and lagged publicly available information. Our primary objective is to determine whether the variables proposed in the literature to predict the equity premium contain incremental information to an investor. We find that certain variables do...

We use a machine learning algorithm called Adaboost to find direction-of-change patterns for the Samp;P 500 index using daily prices from 1962 to 2004. The patterns are able to identify periods to take long and short positions in the index. This result, however, can largely be explained by...

We analyze the interconnection between the sovereign and banking sector risk in the peripheral euro area countries over the 2004Q4-2013Q2 period. Applying the contingent claims methodology, we build indicators of sovereign and banking sector risk (incorporating both market and balance sheet...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of inflation expectations in forecasting exchange rates. To that end, we use an expectation version of purchasing power parity (EVRPPP) based on the differential of inflation expectations derived from inflation-indexed bonds for Brazil, Colombia,...

Government interventions to support the financial institutions fall into two broad categories: direct interventions (which immediately increase the government's financing needs) and off-balance-sheet contingent guarantees (which have no immediate impact on debt but will add to government debt as...

This paper highlights the role of multilateral creditors (i.e., the ECB, IMF, ESM etc.) and their preferred creditor status in explaining the sovereign default risk of peripheral euro area (EA) countries. Incorporating lessons from sovereign debt crises in general, and from the Greek debt...

We analyze the interconnection between the sovereign and banking sector risk in the peripheral euro area countries over the 2004Q4-2013Q2 period. Applying the contingent claims methodology, we build indicators of sovereign and banking sector risk (incorporating both market and balance sheet...