The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into...

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a...

There is a broad agreement that transportation activity is closely linked to the business cycle. Nevertheless, data from the transportation sector have not been part of the tool kit of business cycle analysts due to long publications lags. With the disseminations of electronic road pricing...

This paper addresses the question whether forecasters could have been able to produce better forecasts by using the available information more efficiently (informational efficiency of forecast). It is tested whether forecast errors covariate with indicators such as survey results, monetary data,...

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...

Since the iron and steel sector contributes considerably to industrial CO2 emissions it is important to identify the underlying factors driving steel demand. Using a panel dataset this paper examines the interrelation of steel demand with GDP and its composition, in particular the investment...

Books reviewed: Bhagwati, Jagdish The Winds of the Hundred Days Costanza, Robert, John Cumberland, Herman Daly, Robert Goodland und Richard Norgaard Einfuhrung in die Okologische Okonomik Fogel, Robert William The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism Frey, Bruno S. Inspiring...