We propose a general GARCH framework that allows the predict volatility using returns sampled at a higher frequency than the prediction horizon. We call the class of models High FrequencY Data-Based PRojectIon-Driven GARCH, or HYBRID-GARCH models, as the volatility dynamics are driven by what we...

We examine whether the sign and magnitude of discretely sampled high frequency returns have impact on future volatility predictions. We first let the 'data speak', namely with minimal interference we capture the mapping between returns over short horizons and future volatility over longer...

It is difficult to define news, and many definitions are model-based since part of what is announced is anticipated. Therefore, news is typically defined as a residual within the context of some type of prediction model, and the prediction model locks in the sampling frequency that is the...

The volatility component models have received much attention recently, not only because of their ability to capture complex dynamics via a parsimonious parameter structure, but also because it is believed that they can handle well structural breaks or non-stationarities in asset price...