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We estimate a linear and a piecewise linear Phillips curve model with regional labor market data for West German and Neue Länder. Employing regional observations allows us to country difference the data. This eliminates, under the assumption of homogeneous Länder, supply shocks and changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011524902
Der Beitrag enthält eine Neuschätzung der inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) für Westdeutschland 1980 bis … 1998. Nach einer Darstellung des konzeptionellen Rahmens der NAIRU einschließlich verschiedener Varianten, welche … Probleme. Erstmalig werden für Westdeutschland dann eine zeitvariable NAIRU mit Hilfe des Kalman-Verfahrens sowie dazugehöriger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444884
The paper estimates the NAIRU from a Phillips curve relationship in the state-space framework. To identify the … economic relation on the basis of which the NAIRU is derived. -- Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment ; state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657146
This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which … inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the …-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517881
The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the … European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case … of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010458229
The Phillips curve has generally been estimated in a linear framework. This paper investigates the possibility that the Phillips curve is indeed a curve, and shows that a convex short-run Phillips curve may be a more accurate representation of reality than the traditionally used linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132857
Estimates of the Nairu generally suffer from a large uncertainty, which can be reduced by adopting a bivariate …, it appears that the Nairu can substantially differ from the unemployment trend. Second, relaxing the common trend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120707
This paper provides new estimates of a time-varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by … inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one … inflation target put forward by the European Central Bank. The estimates presented in this paper suggest that the NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773106
The paper estimates the NAIRU from a Phillips curve relationship in the state-space framework. To identify the … economic relation on the basis of which the NAIRU is derived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991082
The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides … an estimate of the degree of labour market slack in the economy. However, the NAIRU is unobservable, and must be … used to forecast wages growth at the Australian Treasury. Australia's NAIRU was previously thought to be around 5 per cent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012511675