systematically. Though to a lower extent, this relationship is also observable regarding U.S. indicators. Forecasters’ disagreement …

heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of … disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time. …

signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle …

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of … monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about … the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds. Longer-horizon short rate disagreement co-moves with term premiums. We …