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This paper proposes Spillover Persistence as a measure for financial fragility. The volatility paradox predicts that fragility builds up when volatility is low, which challenges existing measures. Spillover Persistence tackles this challenge by exploring a novel dimension of systemic risk: loss...
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This paper builds a database of idiosyncratic shocks (events) in global banks and car manufacturers (as representative of non-financial firms), and focuses on how these influence a number of macroeconomic and firm-specific variables in the short- and medium-term. We find that these shocks spawn...
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emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering about 70% of the world's GDP.We assess the performance of these indicators … based on their ability to capture tail risk for economic activity and to predict banking and currency crises. We find that … anticipating banking crisis, and is therefore better suited for financial stability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653846
emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering about 70% of the world's GDP. We use four criteria to assess the performance … predict banking crises and their response to US monetary policy shocks. We find that averaging across the indicators of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259350
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This paper examines the time-varying conditional correlations of daily European equity market returns during the Irish sovereign debt crisis. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model is used to estimate to what extent the collapse of Irish equity markets and subsequent...
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