We build a non-stationary Hawkes model of sovereign credit risk for seven European countries, and estimate it on CDS data from the run-up to the Greek default. We model a country's credit risk as partly driven by a weighted combination of risks across countries. We find Spain and Portugal are...

Policy makers would like to prevent self-fulfilling fluctuations. Given the prevalence of occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) such as the zero lower bound (ZLB), this requires understanding the determinacy of models with OBCs. To this end, we derive existence and uniqueness conditions for...

This note studies a form of a utility function of consumption with habit and leisure that (a) is compatible with long-run balanced growth, (b) hits a steady-state observed target for hours worked and (c) is consistent with micro-econometric evidence for the inter-temporal elasticity of...

We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings. However, even moderately large shocks...

We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints, and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings. However, even moderately large...

We present an algorithm for estimating non-linear dynamic models, including those featuring occasionally binding constraints. The algorithm extends the Cubature Kalman Filter of Arasaratnam and Haykin (2009) with dynamic state space reduction, to give adequate speed in the presence of...

This paper explores the theoretical channels by which financial crises might have an impact on long-run growth. By exploiting occasionally binding financial constraints, we produce a model that generates endogenous crisis episodes featuring permanent falls in productivity, without generating...

This paper examines the ability of the endogenous growth and medium frequency cycle model of Holden (2016) to explain global imbalances and the puzzles of open economy macroeconomics. The model features complete international financial markets, and intrinsically multi-national R&D, yet is still...