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Self-Deception : Adopting False Beliefs for a Favorable Self-View
Samad, Zeeshan - 2020
This paper explores how an individual can deceive herself in order to acquire a more favorable self-view. I present a theoretical model and a laboratory experiment in which each subject's donation to a charity gets transformed into an ambiguous lottery, i.e., a lottery where the winning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825635
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Does having insurance change individuals' self-confidence?
Guber, Raphael; Kocher, Martin; Winter, Joachim - 2018
case. We show that in an insurance context, being insured against losses that may be incurred in a real-effort task changes … subjects' self-confidence. Our novel experimental design allows us to disentangle selection into insurance from the effects of … uninsured subjects are underconfident while those that obtain insurance have well-calibrated beliefs. Our results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812974
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Does having insurance change individuals self-confidence?
Guber, Raphael; Kocher, Martin; Winter, Joachim - 2018
case. We show that in an insurance context, being insured against losses that may be incurred in a real-effort task changes … subjects' self-confidence. Our novel experimental design allows us to disentangle selection into insurance from the effects of … uninsured subjects are underconfident while those that obtain insurance have well-calibrated beliefs. Our results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899247
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Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
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Traders, Forecasters and Financial Instability : A Model of Individual Learning of Anchor-and-Adjustment Heuristics
Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019
Behavioral and experimental literature on financial instability focuses on either subjective price expectations (Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2018) have shown that subjects have problems with both tasks. In this paper, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894616
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Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make Us Smart : Evidence from Different Market Experiments
Anufriev, Mikhail - 2015
We study a model in which individual agents use simple linear first order price forecasting rules, adapting them to the complex evolving market environment with a smart Genetic Algorithm optimization procedure. The novelties are: (1) a parsimonious experimental foundation of individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018941
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Traders, forecasters and financial instability : a model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics
Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019
Behavioral and experimental literature on financial instability focuses on either subjective price expectations (Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2017) have shown that subjects have problems with both tasks. In this paper, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956452
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Learning, Forecasting and Optimizing : An Experimental Study
Bao, Te; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2016
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: 1) agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and 2) given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172774
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Learning, Forecasting and Optimizing : An Experimental Study
Bao, Te; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2013
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175810