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Soft information and economic activity : evidence from the Beige Book
Sadique, Shibley; In, Francis Haeuck; Veeraraghavan, Madhu - In: Journal of macroeconomics 37 (2013), pp. 81-92
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010237930
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Soft Information and Economic Activity : Evidence from the Beige Book
Sadique, Shibley - 2010
This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. The empirical results suggest that the Beige Book's tone changes in response to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138629
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Using Sentiment to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns
Guzman, Giselle - 2012
, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110894
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Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts : psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices
Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter - 2003
reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498976
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News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - 2020
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012417502
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News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - 2020
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069
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Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book : A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
Armesto, Michelle T. - 2008
Studies of the predictive ability of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, an anecdotal measure of regional economic conditions, for aggregate output and employment have proven inconclusive. This might be attributed, in part, to the irregular release schedule of the Beige Book. In this paper, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012724375
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Identifying Asymmetry in the Language of the Beige Book : A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
Armesto, Michelle T. - 2007
Studies of the predictive ability of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, an anecdotal measure of regional economic conditions, for aggregate output and employment have proven inconclusive. This might be attributed, in part, to the irregular release schedule of the Beige Book. In this paper, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012730567
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Stabilising Chaos and Optimising Impact : Policy Evaluation in a Structural Macroeconomic Model
Baek, Seung Jin - 2019
The purpose of this paper is to construct a structural macroeconomic model to design monetary and fiscal policies aimed at attaining macroeconomic objectives. The study further attempts to simulate a baseline and policy scenario to evaluate the impact of such monetary and fiscal policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903266
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Comprehensive Time-Series Regression Models Using Gretl — U.S. GDP and Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment from 1980 to 2013
Shi, Juehui - 2019
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559