In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

This paper explores the market efficiency of the six base metals traded on the LME (London Metal Exchange) using daily data from January 2000 to June 2016. The hypothesis that futures prices 3M (3-month) are unbiased predictors of spot prices (cash) in the LME is rejected based on the false...

This paper presents and explains the newly rediscovered and transcribed daily market gold price from 1919-1968 for the world's main gold market during the period, the London Gold Fixing Auction. The paper highlights several novel features previously not discussed in the literature, such as gold...

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

In recent years, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has witnessed an unprecedented growth in market capitalization, membership, value and volume traded. By December 2007, the All Share Index has grown massively over 57,990.2 from 1113.4 in January 1993. This rising interest in investment...

Tests for random walk behaviour in the Italian stock market are presented, based on an investigation of the fractal properties of the log returns series for the Mibtel index. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality....

In a stock market dominated by passive investors, an interesting question arises as to how the equilibrium level of market efficiency will be maintained. This short article argues that the critical agents in this regard must be the companies that issue the shares, not active investment managers