This research provides a new way to validate and compare buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models. These models specify a customer’s transaction and defection processes in a non-contractual setting. They are typically used to identify active customers in a com- pany’s customer base and to predict...

We explore the implications for asset prices and implied volatilities in an equilibrium model of commodity production. Production of the commodity can be carried out in one of two regimes. In the first regime the reserves are set in constant decline while in the second regime new additions to...

This paper studies the implications for reserve lifetime and related quantities in a continuous time model of resource extraction under uncertainty. Both the resource price and the extracted amount are assumed to follow stochastic processes. Reserve lifetime is determined by the...

Successful product line design and development often requires balancing technical and market trade-offs. Quantitative methods for optimizing product attribute levels using preference elicitation (e.g., conjoint) data are useful for many product types. However, products with substantial...

We study job durations using a multivariate hazard model allowing for worker-specific and firm-specific unobserved determinants. The latter are captured by unobserved heterogeneity terms or random effects, one at the firm level and another at the worker level. This enables us to decompose the...

We analyze portfolio credit risk in light of dynamic quot;frailty,quot; by which the credit qualities of different firms depend on common unobservable time-varying default covariates. Frailty is estimated to have a large impact on estimated conditional mean default rates, above and beyond those...

We propose a general class of flexible models for longitudinal data with special emphasis on discrete-time survival data. The model is a finite mixture model where the subjects are allowed to move between components through time. The time-varying probability of component memberships is modeled...

In small samples and especially in the case of small true default probabilities, standard approaches to credit default probability estimation have certain drawbacks. Most importantly, standard estimators tend to underestimate the true default probability which is of course an undesirable...

The spatial survival models typically impose frailties, which characterize unobserved heterogeneity, to be spatially correlated. This specification relies highly on a predeterminate covariance structure of the errors. However, the spatial effect may not only exist in the unobserved errors, but...