predictive power of disagreement amongst forecasters. The premise is that this variable could signal upcoming structural or … variety of macroeconomic variables, and we use different measurements for the degree of disagreement, together with measures … compared on forecast accuracy. We find that disagreement has predictive power indeed and that this variable can be used to …

scores, and the textual disagreement index is constructed as their dispersion. These textual measures allow us to test a … are more differences of opinion, as measured by our textual disagreement. Based on a massive textual dataset, our analysis …-attention and disagreement models …

disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP …, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … rate). Disagreement about real variables intensifies strongly during recessions, including the current one (by about 40 …

heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of … disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time. …