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Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates
Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric; Ermolov, Andrey - 2017
We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks, later recessions were driven primarily by demand shocks, and the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709342
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Ambiguity, long-run risks, and asset prices
Wei, Bin - 2021
I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667
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Tractable rare disaster probability and options-pricing
Barro, Robert J.; Liao, Gordon Y. - 2019
We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182396
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The Carry Trade and Implied Moment Risk
Broll, Michael - 2016
The carry trade is a zero net investment strategy that borrows in low yielding currencies and subsequently invests in high yielding currencies. It has been identified as highly profitable FX strategy delivering significantly excess returns with high Sharpe ratios. This paper shows that these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992882
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Real-Time Learning, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, and the Variance Risk Premium
Bianchi, Daniele - 2015
upward movements in realized market return volatility. Common wisdom connects these spikes with elevated uncertainty on … state variables and parameters. I show that infrequent, large and relatively transitory macroeconomic uncertainty shocks …, the onset of the second Gulf War, and the great financial crisis of 2008-2009. I compute macroeconomic uncertainty as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034741
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Too-Systemic-To-Fail : What Option Markets Imply About Sector-Wide Government Guarantees
Kelly, Bryan T. - 2015
We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in U.S. option markets, and we show that a large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the cost of financial sector crash insurance during the crisis. The difference in costs between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038170
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Too-Systemic-To-Fail : What Option Markets Imply About Sector-Wide Government Guarantees
Kelly, Bryan T. - 2015
We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in U.S. option markets, and we show that a large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the cost of financial sector crash insurance during the crisis. The difference in costs between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038266
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Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Bekaert, Geert - 2018
We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks; later recessions by demand shocks. We estimate macro risk factors that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935623
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Ambiguity, Long-Run Risks, and Asset Prices
Wei, Bin - 2019
We generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model in Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating the recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences of Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model remains...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896734
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Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Bekaert, Geert - 2019
We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Macro risks represent the variables that govern the time-varying variance, skewness and higher-order moments of these two shocks, with "good"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899126