This public policy brief examines the relationship between trend inflation and commodity price increases and finds that … evidence from recent decades supports the notion that commodity price changes do not affect the long-run inflation rate …. Evidence from earlier decades suggests that effects on inflation expectations and wages played a key role in whether commodity …

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared … by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation …

Inflation is a macroeconomic phenomenon, intensively experimented by the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries … period 1990-2014. The aim of this study is to analyse the inflation phenomenon in this countries in the mentioned period that … has been characterized by passing from hyperinflation to deflation. The evolution of inflation rate is extremely important …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

Issues of inflation measurement are fundamental to the conduct of monetary policy. Price indices form the foundation of … mechanism for holding independent policymakers accountable. To shed some light on the role of inflation measurement, the annual …: Price indices used by central banks; the role of wages and productivity in inflation policy; and the measurement and …

empirical finding when estimated with different expectation formation processes. When inflation becomes de-anchored and … expectations drift, we can observe high inflation even with a mildly positive output gap in response to cost-push shocks. The … normal times to predict the cost of reining in inflation. Our optimal policy exercises prescribe early monetary policy …

-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the … Great Recession and the surge in inflation post-COVID-19. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when … inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate …