This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the … pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a …

against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two … naiuml;ve prediction of no change in inflation but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced … volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty …

useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger …

are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation … structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the … inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the …

chartalist, respectively), the rate of wage inflation depends on either unemployment or the wage-setting policies of the … inflation affects aggregate demand through its impact on the value of assets and debts. Bank rates depend on an endogenous …

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with …. While average output and inflation result the same as under rational expectations, higher moments differ substantially …: output and inflation show persistence, inflation responds sluggishly to nominal disturbances, and the dynamic correlations of …