domestic product. We introduce the first leading indicator constructed to forecast import growth, the Import Climate. It builds …Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since … imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross …

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing …, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained …

the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its … infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate …. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the domestic country should be reflected in the expected export …

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than … production expectations. However, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These … machinery goods. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast …

the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

Learning”, “Generalized Linear Model” and “Support Vector Machine”, in the sense of error minimization, to forecast the degree …

In this paper, we estimated the standard (macro-economic) import equation over the period 1995-2021Q2, using an import …-based import models during the trade collapse of 2009 and subsequent recovery from it. At the time, it appeared that the … each aggregate demand component by its direct and indirect traded inputs, import-adjusted integrated a supply …

direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using … an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and …