The European north-south divide has been an issue of a long-standing debate. We employ a Global VAR model for 28 developed and developing countries to examine the interaction between the global trade imbalances and their impact within the euro-area framework. The aim is to assess the propagation...

It is broadly accepted that two aspects regarding the modeling strategy are essential for the accuracy of forecast: a parsimonious model focusing on the important structures, and the quality of prospective information. Here, we establish a Global VAR framework, a technique that considers a...

The development of employment and unemployment in regional labour markets is known to spatially interdependent. Global Vector-Autoregressive (GVAR) models generate a link between the local and the surrounding labour markets and thus might be useful when analysing and forecasting employment and...

We use a dynamic factor model and a detailed panel data set with quarterly accounts data on all Norwegian banks to study the effects of banks' funding costs on their retail rates. Banks' funds are categorized into two groups: customer deposits and long-term wholesale funding (market funding from...

We use a dynamic factor model and a detailed panel data set for six Norwegian bank groups to analyze i) how funding costs affect retail loan rates and ii) how retail rate differences between banks affect market shares. The data set consists of quarterly data for 2002Q1-2011Q3 and include...

In spite of very easy financing conditions globally, investment has been rather weak in the aftermath of the Great Recession. What explains this apparent disconnect? The evidence suggests that, historically, uncertainty about the future state of the economy and expected profits play a key role...

This paper presents a novel dynamic factor model for non-stationary data. We begin by constructing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium growth model and show that we can represent and estimate the model using a simple linear-Gaussian (Kalman) filter. Crucially, consistent estimation...