We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework suitable to forecast recessions, low growth periods and accelerations for the U.S. and Japan. In a first step, we apply a non-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of...

This article tests the hypothesis that financial supply-side shifts help to explain the low-investment climate of private firms in Germany. The core contention is that a firm's financial position contributes to its access to external finance on credit markets. Special emphasis is put on small...

This paper attempts to test whether financial supply-side shifts explain the low-investment climate of private firms in Germany. The core contention is that a firm's financial position contributes to its access to external finance on credit markets. Special emphasizes is put on small and...

This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for both growth in aggregate M2 and growth in household-sector M2 in the U.S. using data between 1971m1 and 2014m12. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves...

Empirical research based on the Bhaduri/Marglin-variant of the Kaleckian model has recently shown that aggregate demand in many medium-sized and large open economies tends to be wage-led in the medium to long run, even in a period of increasing globalisation. In this paper we extend this type of...

In this article we derive a microfounded model of money demand under uncertainty built on intertemporally optimizing risk-averse households. Deriving a complete solution of the optimization problem taking the intertemporal budget constraint into account leads to ambiguous effects w.r.t. to the...