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months due to the number confinements put in place around the world. Since the worst days of the pandemic caused by COVID-19 … upward trend, increasing some 56.67% to the price from before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic episode. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013363006
Modelling the underlying long-run trend of metal prices is important, given that selected metals are a source of income for many countries. However, estimating the underlying trend has proven to be difficult, given the persistence and volatility of primary commodity prices-metals are no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012265553
This paper develops a novel indicator of global economic activity, the GEA Tracker, which is based on commodity prices selected recursively through a genetic algorithm. The GEA Tracker allows for daily real-time knowledge of international business conditions using a minimum amount of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012390472
correction models are used to study the relationship between oil prices and prices of copper and maize. The commodity price data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668157
This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336943
We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584054
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586458
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012588342
can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia … structural parameters of interest, such as supply and demand elasticises. Our model incorporates both the futures-spot price … spread to capture shocks to the real price of crude oil driven by changes in expectations and US inventories to describe …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013254444
emerging Asian countries that are heavily dependent on commodities respond in an asymmetric manner to positive commodity price … shocks as opposed to negative price shocks. Adopting a structural dynamic regression and censoring positive and negative … shocks, we find limited evidence of any asymmetric response of economic activity to positive and negative commodity price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011579549