Labor productivity in EMDEs is just under one-fifth of the advanced economy average, while in LICs, it is just 2 percent. Average productivity growth in EMDEs has picked up rapidly since 2000, renewing interest in the convergence hypothesis, which predicts that economies with low productivity...

New technologies can both substitute for and complement labor. Evidence from structural vector autoregressions using a large global sample of economies suggests that the substitution effect dominates in the short-run for over three-quarters of economies. A typical 10 percent technology-driven...

New technologies can both substitute for and complement labor. Evidence from structural vector autoregressions using a large global sample of economies suggests that the substitution effect dominates in the short-run for over three-quarters of economies. A typical 10 percent technology-driven...

Frequently, factors other than structural developments in technology and production efficiency drive changes in labor productivity in advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). This paper uses a new method to extract technology shocks that excludes these influences, resulting...

The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices in March 2020. This paper examines the likely implications of the 2020 oil price plunge...

This paper addresses the identification of low-frequency macroeconomic shocks, such as technology, in Structural Vector Autoregressions. Whilst identification issues with long-run restricted VARs are well documented, the recent attempt to overcome said issues using the Max-Share approach of...

Global activity is a key driver of UK GDP and a bellwether of prospects. Nowcasting global GDP growth, or predicting outturns ahead of their release, is therefore a key input into the Monetary Policy Committee's assessment of the UK economic outlook.The Bank uses a suite of models to assess the...

This paper addresses the identification of low-frequency macroeconomic shocks, such as technology, in Structural Vector Autoregressions. Whilst identification issues with long-run restricted VARs are well documented, the recent attempt to overcome said issues using the Max-Share approach of...

Central banks in some emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have employed asset purchase programs, in many cases for the first time, in response to pandemic-induced financial market pressures. Using panel regressions, this paper examines the effects of recent announcements of asset...