We calibrate a closed multi-country input-output model with data from the World Input-Output Database to estimate the size of spillover effects of Germany's final demand on GDP, employment, and the trade balance in Southern European countries. We find that spillover effects are rather small....

This paper assesses whether or to what extent the macroeconomic imbalances, which emerged in the "North" and "South" of the European Monetary Union before the financial and economic crisis of 2008/09, are symmetric. Firstly, we calculate bilateral exports and imports between all EU member...

This paper assesses whether or to what extent the macroeconomic imbalances, which emerged in the "North" and "South" of the European Monetary Union before the financial and economic crisis of 2008/09, are symmetric. First, we show that the imbalances stemmed from different growth patterns and...

Building on the seminal paper of Weber et al. (2022), we provide a stress-test framework of inflation exposure and apply it to the EU28. This adds a yet unrecognised dimension to the latest calls for supply chain stress-tests. We address both the ex- and internal dimensions of inflation exposure...

Trade theories predict and explain the consequences of economic integration. Generally, they show that freer international trade leads to specialisation, technological convergence and faster economic growth. This study compares the conclusions of the trade theories with empirical observations of...