This paper offers an econometric methodology for the detection of self-organisational change (defined in terms of the presence of time irreversibility, structural change and fundamental uncertainty) in economic processes that follow logistic diffusion growth paths in historical time. The...

Given the rapid increase of web-based sales despite the collapse of many dot-com firms, e-services (both online-only & hybrid "clicks & mortar" firms) are faced with a difficult challenge: what value-added features should they offer to effectively gain market share & profits while realistically...

For the past decade, the U.S. economy has been driven not by industrial investment but by a real estate bubble. Although the United States may seem to be the leading example of industrial capitalism, its economy is no longer based mainly on investing in capital goods to employ labor to produce...

I model a financial market that dries out in the wake of premature liquidations. Two main results are obtained. First, liquidity may vanish even if small, riskneutral buyers could easily compensate the ongoing selling. Thus, more markets are vulnerable to quot;runsquot; than suggested by...

For the past decade, the U.S. economy has been driven not by industrial investment but by a real estate bubble. Although the United States may seem to be the leading example of industrial capitalism, its economy is no longer based mainly on investing in capital goods to employ labor to produce...

This paper develops an empirical cost of carry model with endogenously conditioned convenience yield. The approach is implemented using monthly prices of all futures contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange between 1985 and 2006. Tests indicate that the model fits the data extremely...

In this paper we present an innovative and straightforward model for constructing consistent and accurate implied volatility surfaces. The parameters of this model are directly linked to measurable and observable market risks

This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007 which are contained in the main publications of the IMF, the OECD and the BIS and discuss issues relevant to strengthening their surveillance...

In this paper we elaborate on what is commonly referred to as the Skew Delta of a Variance Swap, i.e. the sensitivity of the fair strike of a variance swap relative to moves in the underlying's spot price. In particular we examine whether or not a pure variance product such as a variance swap...

The temporal relation between stock index and Index futures has been and continues to be of interest of regulators, academicians and practitioners alike for a number of reasons such as market efficiency volatility and arbitrage. In perfectly efficient markets profitable arbitrage should not...