The theories of investment under uncertainty and real options predict that uncertainty about, for example, oil prices will tend to depress current investment. We reinvestigate the relationship between the price of oil and investment, focusing on the role of uncertainty about oil prices. We find...

Previous research shows that volatility in oil prices has tended to depress output, as measured by non-residential investment and GDP. This is interpreted as evidence in support of the theory of real options in capital budgeting decisions, which predicts that uncertainty about, for example,...