Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation,...

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. In ation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the disconnect...

The recently observed disconnect between inflation and economic activity can be explained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance out; factor costs dominate firms' marginal...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), driven by unit labor costs has been criticized for failing to match inflation dynamics and for explaining the duration of price contracts. This paper extends recent attempts in the literature to improve the fit of the NKPC, by introducing a fuller...

This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in six countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan). We evaluate the models‘ abilities to match empirical second moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the...

We propose a new test of the forward-looking Phillips curve for a panel of 10 OECD countries. Structural parameter estimates are obtained using an extremum estimation method which is applied in the frequency domain. Such an estimator has the advantage of enabling the econometrician to focus on...

This paper analyses the post-pandemic inflation dynamics in Canada using a behavioral macroeconomic model of the Bank of Canada. Two crucial behavioral assumptions in line with empirical evidence characterize the model: firms make price-quantity decisions according to a simple heuristic rule and...

In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation fell. Later, as the pandemic wore on, inflation has risen sharply, reaching a 40-year high. To explain the dynamics of inflation, we augment the standard labor search and matching model with a shock that affects the demand side of the...

The Phillips curve framework, which includes the output gap and natural rate hypothesis, plays a central role in the canonical macroeconomic model used in analyses of monetary policy. It is now well understood that real-time data must be used to evaluate historical monetary policy. We believe...

The paper shows some new features implemented in SoePL-2012 DSGE model, namely explicitly modeled unobserved labour supply and observed unemployment rate. Our approach to labour market in the New Keynesian DSGE model follows papers of Galí et al. (2011); Galí (2011b), see also Christiano et...