The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with...

Bubbles are a topic of great importance and great controversy. This paper discusses alternative perspectives on the economic meaning and origin of bubbles. Drawing on historical approaches to bubbles, this article sets out a taxonomy of approaches used to explain the nature of bubbles. The paper...

We quantify the time-varying effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy, and global equity markets. While the first-round impact of oil-price shocks on U.S. economic growth has not changed materially over time, their formerly-negative second-round effects are notably...

These pdf slides briefly present new developments within the area of valuation of illiquid assets (Professional Valuation) and explain current revisions as to the conceptual understanding of exchange values which are now getting tied up again with the individual's Worth. A contention is made...

This article attempts to make an insight into the essence of the current processes of expansion and molding of the niche of the Professional Valuation. The first part of the article is devoted to the brief review of new notions and processes which are engendered by the requirements of the...

The main objective of this work is to develop a general equilibrium business cycle model linking financial and real estate markets to the macro economy. The ability of a production economy to account simultaneously for asset pricing, business cycle and real estate market facts is then evaluated...

This paper studies the behavior of corporate bond indices. We find that a 2-factor model with unobservable factors is adequate in capturing the variation of corporate bond portfolio returns, however we cannot identify any linear regression model with observable variables that would be able to do...

An emerging and influential literature finds a large and significant decline in macroeconomic volatility since the middle of the 1980's. In this paper, I examine the extent to which the decline in annual and quarterly real output volatility since the onset of this period of Great Moderation can...

We show that dynamic investment portfolio asset allocation based on secular market cycles outperforms a buy-and-hold portfolio of equities and outperforms a buy-and-hold portfolio of gold over long periods. An objective definition of secular market enables identification of an appropriate...

We investigate the effects of economic uncertainty on the return volatility of financial assets, including equities, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities. We use several popular measures of economic uncertainty, and find the uncertainty displays significant but heterogeneous effect on...