We introduce a smooth transition Generalized Pareto (GP) regression model to study the link between extreme losses and the economic context. The advantage of our approach consists in specifying a time-varying dependence structure between financial factors and the severity distribution of the...

For numerous applications it is of interest to provide full probabilistic forecasts, which are able to assign probabilities to each predicted outcome. Therefore, attention is shifting constantly from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models capturing location, scale, shape...

In this paper we explore the application of Generalised Additive Models of Location, Scale and Shape for the analysis of conditional income distributions in Germany following the reuni cation. We find that conditional income distributions can generally be modelled using the three parameter Dagum...

We reexamine the effect of economic development on the level of democracy based on the data sets of Acemoglu et al. (2008) with a novel regression specification utilizing a zero-one-inflated beta distribution for the response variable democracy. The zero-one-inflated beta distribution is more...

High levels of carbon emissions and rising income inequality are interconnected challenges for the global society. Commonly-applied linear regression models fail to unravel the complexity of potential bi-directional transmission channels. Specifically, consumption, energy sources and the...

Access to electricity is typically the main benefit associated with solar panels, but in economically less developed countries, where access to electricity is still very limited, solar panel systems can also serve as means to generate additional income and to diversify income sources. We analyze...

Estimating nonlinear effects of continuous covariates by penalized splines is well established for regressions with cross-sectional data as well as for panel data regressions with random effects. Penalized splines are particularly advantageous since they enable both the estimation of unknown...

In this paper, we reconsider the relationship between income on health, taking a distributional perspective rather than one centered on conditional expectation. Using Structured Additive Distributional Regression, we find that the association between income on health is larger than generally...

In this paper we construct simultaneous confidence bands for a smooth curve using penalized spline estimators. We consider three types of estimation methods: (i) as a standard (fixed effect) nonparametric model, (ii) using the mixed model framework with the spline coefficients as random effects...