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Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions … of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under … the generalised linear modelling framework. In this paper we approach the problem of mortality modelling with cohort …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902374
Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions … of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under … the generalised linear modelling framework. In this paper we approach the problem of mortality modelling with cohort …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899554
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U … jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar … forecasts for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770767
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables, using the example of age-specific mortality in the … their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a … for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770768
We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373810
Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474973
The neutral band is the interval where deviations from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) are not considered meaningful arbitrage opportunities. The band is determined by transaction costs and risk associated to arbitrage. Seemingly large deviations from CIP in the foreign exchange markets for the US...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012195198
We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside the Gibbs procedure to update the latent and potentially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970355
China has experienced large improvements in mortality rates, but there remain substantial variations at the provincial … level. This paper develops new models to project mortality at both the national and provincial levels in China. We propose … comprehensive database containing mortality data for 31 provinces over the period 1982–2010. The baseline two-level model with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014103019
A Bayesian nonparametric predictive model is introduced to construct time-varying weighted combinations of a large set of predictive densities. A clustering mechanism allocates these densities into a smaller number of mutually exclusive subsets. Using properties of Aitchinson's geometry of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011295701