This paper provides a comprehensive default estimation of commercial real estate loans with a complete commercial mortgage backed securites (CMBS) loan history database. Standard survival models assume that eventually every observation will experience the event. However, often there is a high...

This paper uses an HJM model to price TIPS and related derivative securities. First, using the market prices of TIPS and ordinary U.S. Treasury securities, both the real and nominal zero-coupon bond price curves are obtained using standard coupon-bond price stripping procedures. Next, a...

This paper derives an integrated reduced-form model to calculate the values of adjustable-rate leases with embedded cancellation, purchase, and default options. We also provide numerical examples showing that for a 30-year lease contract, the lessor offers a 15% discount in the initial rent, but...

Many monetary studies on the portfolio balance effect omit its impact to equity returns. Motivated through a simple general equilibrium model, we study how changes in the bond supply affect the overall equity market. Our model predicts that exogenous increases (decreases) in the bond supply...

The servicer comments are proprietary and hardly accessible; however, they can offer the single best source for real-time information of the mortgages. We utilize these comments to shed light on borrower responses to the mortgage forbearance program contained in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and...

The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on inflation-adjusted bonds, swaps, and derivatives. The methodology for valuation and risk management of these securities is an application of the foreign currency extension of a standard HJM term structure model. The two “currencies” in...

We disentangle liquidity-constrained default and the incentives for strategic default using Deep Neural Network (DNN) methodology on a proprietary Trepp data set of commercial mortgages. Our results are robust (insensitive) to severe Financial Crisis (2008) and plausible economic catastrophe...

We analyze the valuation and return performance of real estate trusts (RETs), the 19th-century predecessors of REITs. In contrast to REITs, RETs were not required to adhere to any statutory REIT regulations. Similar to modern-day REITs, we find that dividend growth rather than discount rates...