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The human development index as isoelastic GDP : evidence from China and Pakistan
Bechtel, Gordon G. - In: Economies : open access journal 6 (2018) 2, pp. 1-9
Gross domestic product (GDP) is shown to possess three new desiderata. First, GDP is almost perfectly correlated over time with the first principal component of its three classical indicators. Second, this principal component is in a class of weighted indexes ancillary to GDP. Each ancillary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011854775
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Anticipating critical transitions of Chinese housing markets
Zhang, Qunzi; Sornette, Didier; Zhang, Hao - 2017
we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of … are applied to provide early warning signals of the housing markets in China's major cities. Third, we determine the … evolution of China's housing market via our multi-scales and multi-quantiles analyses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761282
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The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time
Girardi, Alessandro - 2014
Building on the literature on regularization and dimension reduction methods, we have developed a quarterly forecasting model for euro area GDP. This method consists in bridging quarterly national accounts data using factors extracted from a large panel of monthly and quarterly series including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060909
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The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro area GDP in pseudo real time
Girardi, Alessandro; Golinelli, Roberto; Pappalardo, Carmine - 2014 - This draft: 13/01/2014
Building on the literature on regularization and dimension reduction methods, we have developed a quarterly forecasting model for euro area GDP. This method consists in bridging quarterly national accounts data using factors extracted from a large panel of monthly and quarterly series including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011729137
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Factor forecasting using international targeted predictors : the case of German GDP
Schumacher, Christian - 2009
This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831959
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Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors : an application to New Zealand
Eickmeier, Sandra; Ng, Tim - 2009
We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply data-richʺ factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831960
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Leading indicators in a globalised world
Fichtner, Ferdinand; Rüffer, Rasmus; Schnatz, Bernd - 2009
Using OECD composite leading indicators (CLI), we assess empirically whether the ability of the country-specific CLIs to predict economic activity has diminished in recent years, e.g. due to rapid advances in globalisation. Overall, we find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969270
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The role of financial variables in predicting economic activity
Espinoza, Raphael; Fornari, Fabio; Lombardi, Marco - 2009
Previous research has shown that the US business cycle leads the European cycle by a few quarters, and can therefore help predicting euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables provide additional predictive power. We use a VAR model of the US and the euro area GDPs and extend it to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963810
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Economic resilience : a new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries
Röhn, Oliver; Caldera Sánchez, Aida; Hermansen, … - 2015
The high costs of crises underscore the need to strengthen the resilience of economies, notably by assessing early on potential vulnerabilities that can lead to such costly events. This paper first discusses the source and nature of potential vulnerabilities in OECD countries that can lead to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399583
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Systemic event prediction by early warning system
Zigraiova, Diana; Jakubík, Petr - 2014
This work develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010234040