We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for the estimation of the pricing kernel. Historical stock returns and option market data are combined through the Dirichlet Process (DP) to construct an option-adjusted physical measure. The precision parameter of the DP process is calibrated to the...

This study provides an in-depth analysis of how to estimate risk-neutral moments robustly. A simulation and an empirical study show that estimating risk- neutral moments presents a trade-off between (1) the bias of estimates caused by a limited strike price domain and (2) the variance of...

This presentation introduces the rough path-dependent volatility model (RPDVM). After defining the model and its different components, the presentation focuses on various specifications of the RPDVM that already exist in the literature. Finally, a Markovian approximation of the model is presented

We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

This paper investigates a retrospective on the Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies (JDQS) on its 30th anniversary based on bibliometric. JDQSs yearly publications, citations, impact factors, and centrality indices grew up in early 2010s, and diminished in 2020. Keyword network...

We forecast monthly Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) using option market data and four different econometric techniques. Independently from the econometric approach used, all models produce quick to estimate forward-looking risk measures that do not depend from the amount...

We propose option-implied measures of conditional asymmetry based upon quantiles and expectiles inferred from weekly options. All quantities are by construction forward looking and estimated non-parametrically through a novel arbitrage-free natural smoothing spline technique that produces quick...

VaR_Delta-Normal fails in two counts: subadditivity and potentially producing losses larger than its portfolio value. This paper solves the second inconsistency developing formulas derived from a put option, named PVaR_Delta-Normal and Put_Expected_Shortfall, PSF_Delta-Normal; the latter also...

This paper documents that option-implied tail risk in the U.S. financial sector predicts real economic activity. The predictability is found to be incremental to the information content in a stock price-based measure of financial sector tail risk. This finding holds both in- and out-of-sample...

Multivariate return distributions consistent with bilateral gamma marginals are formulated and termed multivariate bilateral gamma (MBG). Tail probability distances and Wasserstein Distances between return data, model simulations and their squares evaluate model performance. A full Gaussian...