for US and French mortality data. We find that the model provides a good fit of the relevant factors and, in a forecast …The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently … across age groups. In this paper, we propose a parametric factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple …

This paper evaluates the out-of-sample performance of two stochastic models used to forecast age specific mortality … are used to compare observed ex-post mortality rates to the forecasts generated by the models. Several functions of the … individual age-specific mortality rates are also entertained, including life expectancy at birth (e0), as well as alternative …

relationship is then used to forecast mortality rates, which are shown to be an improvement over forecasts from more traditional …. Past improvements in mortality over many years, and the uncertainty of these improvements, have attracted the attention of … experts, both practitioners and academics. Since aggregate mortality rates reflect underlying trends in causes of death …

Accurate future mortality forecasts are of fundamental importance as they ensure adequate pricing of mortality … projecting future mortality rates (see for example Clayton and Schifflers, 1987; Lee and Carter, 1992). There are generally two … types of mortality models using the extrapolative approach. The first extracts patterns in age, time and cohort dimensions …

We propose a new machine learning-based framework for long-term mortality forecasting. Based on ideas of neighbouring …-term mortality. In addition, the proposed framework addresses the challenge of a shrinking pattern in long-term forecasting with … in the Human Mortality Database. Results show that this framework reduces the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of …

the age model outperforms the estimated benchmarks; i.e. two autoregressive models, an ARIMA and the 2 per cent forecast …

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that … mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality … the empirical findings, we make the study of estimating and forecasting mortality rates based on a semi …