shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike … winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and …

a threshold cointegration approach that is in accordance with the law of one price and explicitly accounts for … significant regional price arbitrage. However, high threshold estimates in the latter period indicate impediments to arbitrage …

that hedging effectiveness is much higher when the seasonal pattern in spot price changes is approximated with lagged … values of the basis (futures price minus spot price). This fact remain true for short (a week) and long (one, three and six … months) hedging periods. Furthermore, volatility of weekly price changes also has a seasonal pattern and is higher in winter …