We test whether a simple measure of corporate insolvency based on equity return volatility - and denoted as Distance to Insolvency (DI) - delivers better predictions of corporate default than the widely-used Expected Default Frequency (EDF) measure computed by Moody's. We look at the predictive...

We test whether a simple measure of corporate insolvency based on equity return volatility – and denoted as Distance to Insolvency (DI) – delivers better predictions of corporate default than the widely-used Expected Default Frequency (EDF) measure computed by Moody’s. We look at the...

In this chapter we document fiscal policy developments in the main euro area economies over the last two decades and highlight the dramatic changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyse how euro area yield curves respond to COVID-19 related expectations of fiscal expansion. We show how...

We are the first to explore the empirical relationship between interest rates and debt supply expectations derived from Treasury press releases. We find that news on expected government bond supply affects bond yields, but only when the news is an accurate reflection of future supply. We exploit...