This paper investigates the inflation effects of oil price expectations shocks constructed as functional shocks, i.e. as shifts in the entire oil futures term structure (both standard and risk-adjusted). The latter are then included in a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables...

This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations and ex-ante real interest rate shocks, and then examines their macroeconomic effects in the context of a Functional Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables...

The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of Electricity Generation on Price level of Pakistan's Economy during period from 1981 to 2013. ARDL estimation technique is followed for reliable long run and short run estimates of the model. For elasticities of Price level, all variables are...

This work estimates the effect that fluctuations in oil prices have on changes in consumer prices in both the United States and the euro area. For many of the basic items in the basket of goods used to estimate inflation, the effects of oil price trends are divided into two components: the first...

This paper proposes a novel approach to study the macroeconomic effects of oil prices, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data. Using variation in futures prices around OPEC announcements as an instrument, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have...

In this study, the analysis was that the capacity of creating inflation depends on oil prices as the one of energy types that is a major input of aggregate output which becomes a source of economic growth with increasing in costs. The aggregate output is also a function of energy that is the one...

This study investigates the responses of consumer price index (CPI) to crude oil priceshocks in the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis. The study used the StructuralVector Autoregressive model to analyse monthly data from 2000M01 to 2019M12.The impulse response analysis showed that for...

Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically imposed in estimating sign-identified VAR models may be unintentionally informative about the implied prior for the structural impulse responses. This question is indeed important, but we show that the tools that have...

We analyse the pass-through of exchange rates to prices in small, open, commodity-exporting economies, taking Canada as a case study. We estimate pass-through on a wide cross-section of disaggregated import, producer, and consumer prices, conditional on commodity shocks that explain a major...