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Time- or State-Dependence? An Analysis of Inflation Dynamics using German Business Survey Data
Carstensen, Kai; Schenkelberg, Heike - 2011
-dependence; for periods of relatively high and volatile inflation not only the size of price changes (intensive margin) but also the … fraction of price adjustment (extensive margin) is important for aggregate inflation dynamics. Moreover, at the business cycle … frequency, variations in the extensive margin explain a large fraction of inflation variability even for moderate inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427610
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Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey
Knetsch, Thomas A. - 2004
Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295637
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Evaluating the German inventory cycle : using data from the Ifo business survey
Knetsch, Thomas A. - 2004
Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261202
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The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy
Gerberding, Christina - 2001
The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295707
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Quantification of qualitative data using ordered probit models with an application to a business survey in the German service sector
Kaiser, Ulrich; Spitz, Alexandra - 2000
This paper aims at providing business survey analysts with simple econometric tools to quantify qualitative survey data. We extend the traditional and commonly applied method proposed by Carlson and Parkin (1975) to capture observable survey respondent heterogeneity. We also discuss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297723
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Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen: Zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen
Hüfner, Felix P.; Schröder, Michael - 2001
In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir die Eignung der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen als Frühindikatoren für die deutsche Industrieproduktion. Anhand von Granger-Kausalitätstests wird gezeigt, dass die auf Umfragen unter Finanzanalysten basierenden...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297738
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Differences in response patterns in a mixed mode: online/paper & pencil business survey
Kaiser, Ulrich - 2001
indicate that online participation is not significantly affected by sector affiliation, affiliation to East or West Germany nor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297787
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Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data
Schenkelberg, Heike - 2011
This paper offers new insights on the price setting behaviour of German retail firms using a novel dataset that consists of a large panel of monthly business surveys from 1991-2006. The firm-level data allows matching changes in firms' prices to several other firm-characteristics. Moreover,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427594
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Erste Anzeichen für Konjunkturerholung in Westeuropa - aber verhaltene langfristige Wachstumsaussichten
Brand, Diana - In: Ifo Schnelldienst 46 (1993) 34, pp. 07-13
Nach den Meldungen der etwa 500 Experten aus 66 Ländern, die sich im Oktober an der Umfrage beteiligten, hat sich das internationale Wirtschaftsklima weiter aufgehellt. Besonders in Westeuropa haben die positiven Erwartungen merklich zugenommen. Die längerfristigen Wachstumsprognosen, die...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056199
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Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations
Altavilla, Carlo; Giacomini, Raffaella; Ragusa, Giuseppe - 2013
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010368212