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Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching

Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2006

We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979

Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: The advantage of long memory models

Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295136

Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns

Raunig, Burkhard; de Raaij, Gabriela - 2002

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295725

Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time

Döpke, Jörg; Hartmann, Daniel; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2006

We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we used a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295909

Stock Index Volatility Forecasting with High Frequency Data

Hol, Eugenie; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2002

The increasing availability of financial market data at intraday frequencies has not only led to the development of improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324972

Forecasting random walks under drift instability

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2008

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276222

A high-low model of daily stock price ranges

Cheung, Yan-Leung; Cheung, Yin-Wong; Wan, Alan Tze Kin - 2008

We observe that daily highs and lows of stock prices do not diverge over time and, hence, adopt the cointegration concept and the related vector error correction model (VECM) to model the daily high, the daily low, and the associated daily range data. The in-sample results attest the importance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277079

Support vector regression based GARCH model with application to forecasting volatility of financial returns

Chen, Shiyi; Jeong, Kiho; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl - 2008

In recent years support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a moving...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274143

The dynamics of hourly electricity prices

Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Trück, Stefan - 2010

The dynamics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets is an important element of competitive power markets that were only established in the last decade. In electricity markets, the market microstructure does not allow for continuous trading, since operators require advance notice in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270725

Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability

Sucarrat, Genaro - 2008

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295275

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