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area, Japan, and U.K.) a compression in the long-term yield spread exerts a powerful effect on both output growth and … inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the FED’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605304
Business cycle models with sticky prices and endegenous firm entry make novel predictions on the transmission of shocks through the extensive margin of investment. This paper tests some of these predictions using a vector autoregression with model-based sign restrictions. We find a positive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295880
Using a unique German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298833
-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated models for the Great Inflation and the most recent period, I show that, as a … played by monetary policy in exacerbating the Great Depression, causing the Great Inflation, or fostering the Great …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605234
Using a German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The cross-sectional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271782
We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604996
Recent studies proposed news about future technology growth as the main driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. The identification of these news through stock prices in SVARs has been criticized in the past. Therefore, I propose a series of experiments to test that hypothesis by examining its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281600
Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneousfirm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298831
: lagged expectations about monetary policy influence the current inflation rate through an indexation rule. No structural … inflation persistence is assumed. We show that this model can capture stylized facts about short-run inflation dynamics both in … between the degree of inflation persistence and the stability and transparency of monetary policy. Thereby, our model can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604730
Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneous-firm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266059