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.S. (i.e., forward-looking monetary policy), but not in Japan. The central banks in both countries react sharply to demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277802
used methods: the aggregate approach and the unconstrained disaggregate approach. In this paper we apply them on USA, Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322488
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605301
Not only the level of aggregate unemployment but also the properties of its dynamics are an important topic in macroeconomics and labor economics. Several models like e.g. matching models with endogenous job destruction explicitly predict an asymmetric pattern in the evolution of unemployment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262548
We explore the implications of endogenous firm entry and exit for business cycle dynamics and optimal fiscal policy. We first show that when the firm exit rate is endogenous, negative technology shocks lead to reductions in the number of firms. Technology shocks therefore have additional effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320770
We study an exchange economy with overlapping generations of consumers who derive utility from consuming a non-durable commodity and housing. A banking sector offers loans to finance housing. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium dynamics which alternates between an expansive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308946
In this paper, we estimate a small New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Germany for the period from 1975 to 1998 and use it to identify the structural shocks, which have driven the business cycle. For this purpose we apply indirect inference methods, that is we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264738
In an evolutionary approach to macroeconomics, the market disequilibrium dynamics resulting from structural change need to be properly represented at the aggregate level. As suggested by the late F.A.Hayek, a suitable equilibrium concept required to this end as a frame of reference, is that of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266723
concentration, operational costs, inflation, and simultaneity or reverse causation. The countercyclical pattern is explained by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292221
Credit constraints that link a private agent’s debt to market-determined prices embody a credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and constrained socially optimal equilibria, inducing private agents to overborrow. The externality arises because agents fail to internalize the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292300